2045 Deadline - inspired by Ray Kurzweil and Vernor Vinge.
2045 is an excellent target to aim for.
► Progress in the year 2010 (update) alluded to the Singularity happening by 2045
at the latest.
Our expectations shape the future therefore we must expect utopia by 2045. The Singularity
could happen earlier than 2045. Overoptimistic forecasts are disappointing. Our 2045
deadline is a safe date. Predictions are tricky because we can’t be sure what will
happen until after the event, therefore 2045 is our deadline because it’s almost
certain the Singularity will happen by 2045. Focusing our attention on 2045 makes
2045 an extremely likely year for Singularity-completion but the future could easily
change. Actions in the present change the future. Our awareness will ensure the Singularity
happens no later than 2045. Increased awareness regarding the year 2045 guarantees
intensified effort in Singularity-related-professions thereby bringing the date of
the Singularity forward. Hopefully the Singularity will happen sooner than our 2045-deadline.
Concentration of our awareness in the present guarantees the future we desire. 2045
is our deadline-target for the Singularity. We have the power to create utopia.
In 2008 Vernor Vinge predicted a 2030 deadline for the Singularity. Vernor’s early
2030-Singularity could be correct, but to avoid disappointment our target is 2045.
Via the Singularity Institute you can watch the video of Vernor’s prediction here.
The Singularity will not be a short-lived explosion. The explosion could easily last
30 years. If the Singularity begins in 2030 we should be at peak explosiveness by
2045. The explosion begins with Post-Scarcity and immortality and it ends with infinite
strangeness. It will be really weird. 2045 could mark the beginning of the explosion
or it could mark the midpoint in the explosion where the explosion is becoming extremely
powerful. 2045 is a brilliant target regarding a time when the Singularity is happening.
Previous overoptimistic predictions for futuristic breakthroughs motivate us to aim
for a 2045 deadline, a very safe and sure date.
Vernor Vinge: “I personally would be surprised if it hadn’t happened by 2030.”
In 1965 Irving John Good made premature speculations about the creation of the first
ultra-intelligent machine. Irving John Good expected an “intelligence explosion”
to occur in the 20th century but Good’s forecast was over-optimistic. Over-optimistic
predictions can occur due to the forecaster’s bias therefore our deadline of 2045
avoids any anticlimax. Some forecasters want futuristic progress to happen sooner
instead of later, therefore their desires skew their predictions. Data presented
in Ray Kurzweil’s book “The Singularity is Near” offers strong evidence for the Singularity
happening by 2045 at the latest. Ray’s book was a key inspiration for our 2045 deadline,
but the evidence in Ray’s book is NOT essential for comprehending why 2045 is the
most likely deadline for the Singularity. For example: Tiny 9 nanometer circuits
for advanced microchips were created in 2010.
By looking at the accelerating world around us we can see the quick evolution of
the internet, or we can imagine how smart-phones could evolve into human-level-AI,
or we can look at stem-cell research. Many scientific marvels were already evident
in the year 2010. In December 2010 E. coli bacteria were reprogrammed to create molecular-circuitry
for tiny biological-computers; this research at University of California San Francisco
created bacterial “logic gates” via bio-rewiring the communication between cells.
See also DNA logic gates and yeast biocomputers. It is easy to imagine a technological
utopia occurring by 2045 or earlier. In 2005 Kurzweil gave a marvellous forecast
of super-intelligence occurring in 2045, one billion times more powerful than our
entire human intelligence in 2005. Computing power will inevitably explode. The year
2045 is an excellent utopian target to aim for.
In November 2010 IBM announced plans to build supercomputers the size of sugar cubes
by 2025 or earlier. In March 2011 IBM updated its sugar-cube-statement by stating
the sugar-cube-supercomputers will operate at minimum speeds of 1 quintillion (exa)
FLOPS, and the expected completion year would be 2021. When powerful sugar cube supercomputers
are combined with the latest version of Robot Adam or Watson we will then start progressing
noticeably quicker.
Ray Kurzweil: “I set the date for the Singularity—representing a profound and disruptive
transformation in human capability—as 2045. The nonbiological intelligence created
in that year will be one billion times more powerful than all human intelligence
today.” http://singularity.com/qanda.html
● Colossal Progress ● Stop Despair ● Positive
Feedback ● CUIPTF ● 2045 Home
The Law of Technological Singularity
● Law of Accelerating Returns ● Moore’s Law ●
Sociodynamics
